{"id":4730,"date":"2026-09-07T15:08:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T15:08:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eha-consulting.com\/?p=4730"},"modified":"2026-09-07T15:08:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T15:08:22","slug":"policy-analysis-election-in-the-german-state-of-saxony-anhalt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eha-consulting.com\/en\/policy-analysis-election-in-the-german-state-of-saxony-anhalt\/","title":{"rendered":"Policy Analysis: Election in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n


What happened?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On September 6, 2026, state-level elections were held in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany\u2019s 16 federal states and one of the five eastern German states. With a population of just 2.1 million (Germany: 84 million) and 1.7 million eligible voters, the state is one of the smallest in the Federal Republic. Nevertheless, the election received an exceptionally high level of attention, including internationally. This is due to the landslide victory of the AfD (Alternative for Germany); the AfD\u2019s state chapter in Saxony-Anhalt is classified by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution as \u201cconfirmed far-right.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The (preliminary official) election result<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Compared to the 2021-elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the far-right AfD\u2019s vote share has more than doubled. While such a surge to the top of the political landscape had been predicted, it still came as a major blow to representatives of the established parties on election night.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The conservative CDU had previously held the office of Minister-President and, since 2021, had led a governing coalition consisting of the CDU, the Social Democrats (SPD), and the Liberals (FDP). Now the CDU has been punished at the polls and has lost more than 50% of its voter base.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The SPD has stabilized somewhat surprisingly. Just a few weeks ago, the SPD seemed at risk of failing to clear the 5% threshold. Apparently, voters chose the SPD, among other reasons, to weaken the AfD.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The Greens benefited from a very strong anti-AfD campaign and, surprisingly, achieved the best result the party has ever attained in Saxony-Anhalt.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The Left Party suffered a surprisingly heavy loss and fell well short of its previous result.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The BSW, a split-off of the Left Party, narrowly cleared the 5% threshold. With the BSW\u2019s entry into the state parliament, the party has positioned itself to help either the AfD or a multi-party coalition of the established parties come to power.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The Liberals (FDP) are bowing out of the political scene in Saxony-Anhalt and failed to clear the 5% threshold.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    The AfD\u2019s landslide victory can also be impressively illustrated graphically using the votes cast for the parties. A comparison with the last state elections in 2021 shows the shift in majorities in the electoral districts of Saxony-Anhalt (blue = AfD, black = CDU, green = Greens):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Possible government constellations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


    As is so often the case, the election results are inconclusive and make forming a government highly complicated. At least the results prevent the AfD (39 seats) from securing an absolute majority (42 seats). Before the election, an absolute majority had been a realistic possibility if several parties\u2014such as the BSW, the Greens, and the SPD\u2014had failed to clear the 5% threshold. As it stands, however, the AfD is three seats short of an absolute majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    With the exception of the far-left BSW, all other parties have categorically ruled out a coalition with the far-right AfD. It seems surprising that a far-right party could join forces with a far-left party in a governing coalition (44 seats). In fact, the two parties have a surprisingly large number of overlapping issues, such as their political proximity to Russia, their aversion to NATO, their skepticism toward climate protection and renewable energy, as well as their shared rejection of the EU and the euro. A minority government led by the AfD and tolerated by the BSW would also be conceivable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


    Without the BSW, the other parties are unable to secure a majority of seats in the state parliament. Even an alliance of the four parties, the CDU, SPD, Greens, and Left Party, would not have a majority (39 seats). The four parties would have to form a coalition with the BSW or rely on its support. However, such a governing coalition would be extremely difficult to organize, as the parties\u2019 political views and values are virtually incompatible. Nevertheless, incumbent Minister-President Sven Schulze (CDU) will (have to) do everything he can to enter into negotiations with the parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    What are the key lessons learnt from the election?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


    One of the smallest federal states in terms of the number of eligible voters is sending shockwaves through Germany, even though many things remain completely unclear the day after the election. Perhaps the most important insights are the following :
    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A far-right party is establishing itself at the state level. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n


    The AfD\u2019s election victory opens a new chapter in the history of the Federal Republic. Even though the AfD narrowly missed securing an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, its landslide victory sends a more than clear warning signal to all federal states\u2019 governments and the federal government. With an exceptionally high voter turnout of 78 percent, more than 43 percent of voters chose a party classified as \u201cconfirmed far-right,\u201d largely motivated by a desire to show the established \u2018old\u2019 parties that their policies have failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


    With this democratic mandate, the AfD derives a mandate to govern from the fact that it is the strongest party. However, no such mandate exists in the political system of the Federal Republic of Germany. The party that can organize a majority will form and lead the government. The AfD will now attempt to organize such a majority as the other parties will. From today\u2019s perspective, it is still completely unclear who will ultimately form a government in Saxony-Anhalt and as part of which governing coalition. An AfD-led government with an AfD minister-president may seem unlikely at the moment, but it is certainly possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The far-left BSW becomes the kingmaker<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n


    The BSW is celebrating its narrow entry into the state parliament. The BSW, led by party founder Sahra Wagenknecht and believed to be on its last legs before the election, managed\u2014by a margin of just a few hundred votes\u2014to become the kingmaker for either the far-right AfD or the other parties. A potential \u201cnightmare scenario\u201d involving far-right and far-left forces in a government coalition suddenly seems possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


    The CDU is running into rough waters – and its Chancellor along with it<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n


    If the CDU loses a state election, it always has repercussions for federal politics, especially when the Chancellor is a member of the CDU and also serves as the party\u2019s chairman. Even if there is no direct impact on federal politics, the federal party, or the federal government, the CDU will not be able to move on to business as usual without consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


    As CDU party chairman, incumbent Chancellor Friedrich Merz will be held largely responsible for the halving of the party\u2019s vote share in Saxony-Anhalt. The unpopular Chancellor, who is also navigating rough waters politically at the federal level, will be in full defense mode in the coming days and weeks. While it is unlikely that he will fail as Chancellor alongside the federal government, a dramatic sharpening of the CDU\u2019s political profile is necessary, especially since Merz took office promising to halve the AfD\u2019s vote share in Germany. Already, the first calls for personnel changes are being heard within the party. The Bavarian sister party, the CSU, is also demanding that the CDU party finally take a clear political stand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


    The established parties are becoming paralyzed<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n


    Whether it\u2019s the CDU, SPD, Greens, or Left Party: the established parties are currently no longer capable of credibly addressing Germany\u2019s problems. Over the years, the \u2018old\u2019 parties have made themselves vulnerable to extreme forces and charismatic populists. This situation is not likely to change in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The impact on the economy<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n


    In its election manifesto, the AfD promises to halt the \u201ceconomic decline\u201d in the structurally weak state of Saxony-Anhalt. However, all economists in Germany agree that an AfD-led state government could hardly change anything, because responsibility for many of the policy ideas in the AfD\u2019s party program does not lie at the state level at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


    However, it is considered certain that demographic trends would take a dramatic turn for the worse for the economy. Out of fear of the AfD, many people with an immigrant background are already considering leaving the state. Others will avoid moving to the state in the future, thereby exacerbating the severe shortage of skilled workers. Investments would also be at stake. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing stated, \u201cInternational investors\u2019 view of Germany will definitely become more negative. Many announced investments will, at the very least, be called into question. Investors will ask themselves what this means for Germany\u2019s long-term policies, long-term stability, and reliability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    What\u2019s to come<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n


    The coming days will send many in Berlin\u2019s political circles into crisis mode. But the next political challenges are already looming on the horizon, as the next two state elections are scheduled for September 20.
    In the eastern German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, too, the AfD is currently in the lead. Here, however, the situation is somewhat different than in Saxony-Anhalt, as the ruling SPD trails the AfD by only a few percentage points. This could make forming a government less complicated, even if the AfD emerges from the elections as the strongest party. The CDU currently stands at less than 10% in the polls.
    Elections will also be held in the federal state of Berlin on the same day. The ruling CDU could emerge as the big loser here, possibly even being overtaken by the AfD. A future governing coalition consisting of the SPD, the Greens, and The Left is likely here. The loss of the incumbent mayor, combined with a poor showing by the CDU in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, would enormously increase the pressure on the CDU and Chancellor Merz within a matter of days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    What happened? On September 6, 2026, state-level elections were held in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany\u2019s 16 federal states and one of the five eastern German states. With a population of just 2.1 million (Germany: 84 million) and 1.7 million eligible voters, the state is one of the smallest in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-articles"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPolicy Analysis: Election in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt - E&HA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eha-consulting.com\/policy-analysis-election-in-the-german-state-of-saxony-anhalt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Policy Analysis: Election in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt - E&HA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What happened? 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